Horse Sense

Al Ries and Jack Trout summed it beautifully. To become successful in life, you need horse sense to ride a winner. When to get on a sector horse and when to get off is a sense not every body has. Identifying outperformers from underperformers needs home work. For example, sector risk is the greatest contributor…

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The legend of Cornucopia

Amalthea raised Zeus on the milk of a goat and in turn Zeus gave her the goat’s horn, the horn of plenty, which had the power to give to the person in possession of it whatever he or she wished for. This is the legend of cornucopia. Despite what contemporary mindsets might be, for us…

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The Prosperity Index

Daniel Kahneman, Father of behavioral finance has clearly illustrated in his life long and Nobel Prize winning work that a majority of us humans are loss averse. Even if it means making a wrong choice. If we plug his work on the Elliott fractal then we can assume that all down ending C waves will…

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Westernisation of Asian diet

Adam Smith would have been so happy to see thriving Mac burgers next to Andheri station in Mumbai. The vision of capitalism lived much beyond his imagination. But what might shock him though is how consumerism overwhelmed the invisible hand. And how sustained income, urbanization and growth pushed Asia to drop an inferior good rice…

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Waking up to Gung Ho

An asset or currency that wakes up from years of inaction is an opportunity. And Market psychology that goes gung ho is scary. We at Or-phe-us differentiate between the two clearly. We are alert when an asset is ready to move out of inaction and we are careful when market psychology gets going. For us…

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TRIANGE TRIANGLE EVERYWHERE

If you would replace triangle with water, the statement will become life defining. But what if we tell you the simple Euclidean geometric form not only defines the molecular form of H2O but also the demand and supply cycles of environment that might push the now inexpensive natural asset into a high return exponential trajectory….

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OIL on the edge

After the confusion at 60, we threw in the towel for the alternate count looking at prices lower than 17 Nov low. This was still easy, as Nov – Dec move up was a counter trend move, which had to end and push prices lower. Now we are almost $ 10 down from 60. Last…

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INDIA OUTLOOK 2007

 The Indian economic cycle is heading to the late expansion stage. Theoretically there are five stages viz. early expansion, middle expansion, late expansion, early contraction and late contraction. The very fact that we are heading to the late expansion stage suggests that we are still away from a top and 2007 might see a new…

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The Quirky Human

Although he never took an economics course, Princeton psychologist [bold]Daniel Kahneman[/bold] received the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 2002. Kahneman’s life-long work integrated psychological research and economic science. His work showed economists how people don’t always make reasoned choices. Kahneman calls it “The Quirkiness of Human Judgment”. [bold]“Sell high and buy low”[/bold] sums this…

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By 2025 we will be in Stone Age

These are the famous words of Geologist Kenneth Deffeyes voiced in FEB 2006. Though the expert reiterated later saying that the words he said were a bit harsh, the quote anyway found its way to the top list of 2007 quotes. Books and cover stories highlight a mass psychology extreme. We call it a cover…

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The Butterfly Effect

December Cold; January Gold. If gold behaved even half as tricky, as winters are playing this December, precious markets will get a bit more interesting. It is seven weeks since we put our last update on gold with a potential target price turns on gold at $640 around November 24. The metal dipped 3 per…

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Ouch! It’s the Smelter

ZINC – 25% down in 35 calendar days should definitely pinch if not hurt even the most entrenched bull. Have you thought what another 25% might do? And why did we fall in the first place? The notorious Hedge fund, the global reason, the local reason, the Zinifex-Umicore merger to become the largest ZINC producer…

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Gold Silver Ratio

Did you know that the price relationship between Gold and Silver is not fixed? It varies substantially. And it has predictive value too. As in different market environments, the value of Gold is perceived differently than Silver. Gold is perceived as an important crisis commodity. As fear replaces confidence, Gold increases in value relative to…

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The Lone Voice

  We analysed RON in NOV 05 and said, “Despite central bank interferences, we expect RON to test 3.0 levels before any pullbacks. This is a strengthening of about 14% from current levels. This is about 10% more than expected Dollar strengthening against Euro. This positivity will rub on the local stock markets as it…

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